Redefining India’s Afghan Policy

When President Karzai lands in New Delhi tomorrow, 20 May, 2013, it is expected that, there are going to be changes on the chess board of international relations viz-a-viz our partnership with Afghanistan. Currently India’s involvement in Afghanistan is limited to the areas of development like roads, education, telecom and training of armed personnel. India’s total commitment is worth US $2 billion. As the coalition troops are winding down their more than a decade long operations, there is a feeling that Afghanistan would relapse into terrorism and anarchy once again, as was the case after the Russian troops left in 1989. Therefore in order to fill the vacuum, Afghanistan and even US have been exhorting India to play an enhanced military role in Afghanistan. The emerging question on the scene is that, is this an opportunity for India to regain its position at the high table of the super powers given the fact that only Russia and USA have had the rare distinction of having played such decisive role in Afghanistan in the past. Or is this a trap into which India is been driven into. Remember, the coalition forces not only lost almost 2,500 soldiers since 2001 but also the US has had to pump a whopping 100 billion dollars a year to sustain its operations in Afghanistan. Let’s discover if it makes good sense for India to get involved militarily in Afghanistan.

As far as Afghanistan is concerned we should certainly have a much calibrated approach to our policy. Getting involved in Afghanistan is not easy for sure. Countries like Russia and United States have faced daunting challenges to retain their stronghold on this nation in the past. Therefore the government should have a robust policy in place. What we could have is basically a two pronged policy. First, of course, is sustenance of peace and security within Afghanistan and second is safeguarding our economic interests/investments. The quantum of our involvement in the former should be guided by the latter, predominantly. Meaning thereby that, the India’s Afghan operation should be one that is financially sustainable and profitable by virtue of our economic or financial benefits out of Afghanistan. We cannot afford to be a United States which passed on the cost burden of the war to its citizens. They may have had a case for it in 9/11 attacks but so far we don’t. Therefore what we need is that have revenue streams coming from Afghanistan itself to support our military arm in Afghanistan. This should be the broad framework within which we must operate.

Let’s now analyze each of the two parts in detail. With the economic part first. Afghanistan has mineral reserves worth an estimated 3 trillion dollars. These include coal, copper, oil, lithium and iron. Lithium is one such mineral which India is deficient in and which has huge need for future in the area of manufacturing of batteries. Afghanistan’s budding defence sector is in its growing stages. We could supply light artillery and other military equipment to them. Not only this, Afghanistan offers a big market to our private sector companies also. China has already made deep inroads into Afghanistan. Recently China firms bagged huge mining contracts. China so far has been reaping much of the benefits without have to invest much in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Then what is stopping us from gaining from our legitimate investments made? Afghanistan could be our gateway to trade with Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Coming to the second part of military deployment, now.  First and foremost we should be prepared to safeguard our economic ventures to maintain their smooth operation and subsequent financial viability. This would very much involve having a range of options at our disposal on the ground. We shall have to implant our intelligence officers to ensure that we have prior information of any misadventure from the side of insurgents. Then we should have enough men manning our embassy and consulates, adequate air support, surveillance mechanisms and reinforcement plan. All drawn out, well beforehand.  We should not be shying away from deployment of elite troops on the ground for carrying out surgical counter-terrorism operations. In order to avoid incidents like that of the bombing of our embassy in Kabul on 7 July 2008, we must have such plans in place in advance. Such a deployment should be very well supported by latest technological weaponry and stealth. A lean but credible and effective military presence is what the need of the hour is.

Many believe that India’s involvement in Afghanistan is a threat to our situation in Kashmir as Afghanistan has been used heavens by the Taliban to wage proxy war against India. But the fact is that in case of Afghanistan relapses into chaos once again the stability of Kashmir with come to a threat anyways. The prevalent peace, after the hard fought proxy war in Kashmir will be short lived. Therefore having our boots on Afghan soil is a more proactive strategy. So the fear of losing lives and the expenditure is little misplaced in this context. India has a choice to make here. Whether to continue to be passive in its involvement or take the risk and be at the high table where many superpowers have got involved and got routed.

I believe all problems also have opportunities in them. Afghanistan should not only be looked through the prism of problem but it also offers India with a rare opportunity. And the opportunity is to have a greater say in determining the future course of action in her immediate neighborhood.  Else countries like China will capitalize on this opportunity and once again we would be on the reactive mode to the happenings around.

And this should alarm, our policy makers at least !