Options in front of India viz-a viz Pakistan

Pakistan is our neighbor in the North-West. A country which was begotten out of India itself but has ever since, been at loggerheads with us .We have had a series of four wars with Pakistan in -1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999. We have defeated them decisively every time it tried to of invading India. Moreover, it has also continued to wage proxy war against us by sending terrorists across the border, majorly in J&K.

However, India as a nation has always wanted to be on a higher moral ground as far as the Indo-Pak relations are concerned. And by not retaliating vehemently it is still persisting on with maintaining on the high moral ground. The composite dialogue process is still on despite the many ceasefire violations and India believes in engaging with Pakistan on a one-on –one basis without any third party interference. More so because we haven’t had good experiences whenever we have knocked on the doors of any third party to resolve the Indo-Pak issues.  Therefore there is no alternative to a dialogue is what is a premise of the Indian policy viz-a viz Pakistan.

Now under circumstances when you have Pakistani soldiers’ crossing over the LoC and killing your soldiers as was the case on the 8^th of Jan 2013, one question comes to a citizen’s mind. Is it a sign of strength or weakness to continue talking to Pakistan? The answer is that we have no better option. This limit is what Pakistan is also aware of unfortunately, and is taking advantage all the time by resorting to such provocative acts on the LoC. Therefore the need of the hour and in future will be, to develop a new set of options that could perhaps have the potential of a deterrent and have the value of inducing certain element of uncertainty in the minds of especially those who call the shots in Pakistan.

Option 1: Have a covert network inside Pakistan. This will give India more tactical elbow room which we really are in need of, during such situations. If we claim to have agencies as RAW we must well use them instead of wasting the tax payer’s money on running such agencies. Else let’s just disband them. Off late, we have come to realize one fact that having a nuclear arsenal is not the solution to the problem because Pakistan too is a nuclear state today. And using the nukes is the last option and never the first. And with India’s stance of maintaining a – ‘No first use’ policy even this option is not available. Therefore, tactical options are something we should be looking at. And as it is there is so much uncertainty in Pakistan with respect to its democratic institutions that leveraging on this chink in its armor, should not be a difficult task. Like the killing of almost 100 Shi'ites from the Hazara community recently had led to mass protests in Pakistan. Such fault lines in the populations could be used by India to destabilize it at will.

Option 2: Choke the resources to sap them economically. Indian can even think of disrupting the oil flow into the Pakistani port of Karachi. However for this India will require international support from nations like US, China and Iran. This is on the similar lines in which US wants India to limit its oil off take from Iran and instead, switch to nuclear generated plants as per provisions of the Indo-US nuclear deal. This is also true when dealing with the river water sharing. Under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, India chose to part with almost 80% of the water of the six Indus Rivers. As we have built dams on these rivers on the upstream on our side we can regulate the flow of water and choke the agrarian economy of the Northern parts of Pakistan. I feel we have been too generous with Pakistan and it’s time to tighten the noose. With all these rivers flowing from India and then to Pakistan it gives us enough room to ensure that the agricultural land across the border remains parched.

Option 3: Raise a diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan internationally and stop foreign aid from flowing in. Since 2001 $20 billion has been doled out by the US alone to Pakistan in the form of civil and military aid largely for using the Pakistani air bases and for allowing a free hand for the CIA to operate inside Pakistan. After the US operations in Afghanistan wound up by this year end, India must ensure that this aid reduces considerably and is gradually stopped at the earliest. Also we must see that no military hardware is traded between US and Pakistan so that these are not used by Pakistan against us in the event of escalations in tensions, if any.

Option 4: Deploy troops in Afghanistan. Undoubtedly India has spent a lot of money in the aid for Afghanistan and which Pakistan has been uncomfortable about. When US troops leave Afghanistan later this year, India can think of deploying a lean contingent of our special forces so that it has some sort of deterrent value and also a spoiler in terms of their focus on their border with India. A hot Durand line is in the interest of India as circumstances stand at present. This should sap the energy and resources of the Pakistani army slowly.

Option 5: Develop better relation with China. This is the most uphill task but also has the potential of being the most enduring one. A neutral approach of Beijing can be the best antidote to any Pakistani misadventures in the region. Given that China has invested in Pakistan it is a challenge to make Beijing act against Pakistan but what we can possibly do is to equally checkmate China in the process by increasing the presence on the Strait of Malacca from where the crude oil supplies flow to China.

I am not saying that these are easy options, perhaps not. To put in place some of these options India will require considerable political will and deft diplomatic and administrative acumen. But I strongly feel, time necessitates that we think in these directions. Else we run the danger of Pakistan bleeding us militarily and politically by engaging in such provocative acts as the crossing of the Pakistani troops into India in the Mendhar sector on the 8^th of January this year, and we having no option but just harp that- we have to engage in dialogue, and that too when we don’t even know if we have a buy in from the other side or there are sufficient mutual trust between both parties.

We have seen in the past that governments after government have been sitting as lame ducks whenever Pakistan has acted in such a manner. Take the example of the IC-814 hijack or the attack on the Indian Parliament or the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai. You even had the NDA government which even marched a million men to the border and back, thinking that, that was an option, when it was not really. This kind of thought process is necessary if India has to be aregional power at least, forget being a super power.